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President Volodymyr Zelenskyy of Ukraine stated that a framework for a peace deal developed with US officials are poised to be completed in a matter of days. Afterward, U.S. representatives will submit the terms to the Russian leadership.

Negotiations in Berlin Produce Significant Progress, But Key Hurdles Persist

Following extensive talks in Berlin, American negotiators indicated on Monday that approximately “90%” of the contentious issues between Moscow and Kyiv had been settled. Although the outlook appears positive, an actual conclusion to the conflict is not guaranteed, particularly because the Russian lack of participation from the ongoing discussions.

In the early hours of Tuesday, the Ukrainian president noted that the American legislature was anticipated to vote on security guarantees and that a complete package of documents could be prepared “imminently.” Subsequently, the U.S. would engage in discussions with Russian representatives, potentially followed by high-level meetings as soon as this coming weekend.

Defense Assurances and International Support

“The plan involves five documents. Some of them pertain to binding security pledges: formally ratified, that is, voted on and approved by the US Congress,” the president commented to journalists. He clarified that these assurances would “mirror the collective defense clause” of the Nato alliance.

Earlier, American representatives declined to give precise information regarding the likely contents of the security package or the consequences if Russia sought to capture more land following an agreement. They did, however, confirm that the United States has no plans to place boots on the ground in the country.

Leaders from the United Kingdom, France, and Germany and several additional European countries said in a unified declaration that forces belonging to a “coalition of the willing” could “assist in the regeneration of Ukrainian military capabilities, in securing Ukraine’s skies, and in supporting safer seas, potentially by conducting operations within its territory.”

However, they did not suggesting these actions would serve as guarantees equivalent to NATO's Article 5. Furthermore, there is little sign that Russia is anywhere close to accepting the type of package being negotiated between the U.S. and Ukraine.

Moscow's Stance and Land Issue

The following day, the Kremlin said it had not seen the specifics of the proposals on security guarantees. Russia’s deputy foreign minister, Sergey Ryabkov, asserted that Russia would never accept forces of Nato countries being stationed in Ukrainian territory “no matter what.”

The primary obstacle between the Ukrainian negotiators and US negotiators remains the territorial question. One proposal involves Ukraine relinquishing the parts of the Donbas region it currently controls, while the Ukrainian side prefers to freeze the lines. “Talks continue on the territorial issue. As is known, it is one of the key issues. At this point, there is no consensus on it yet,” the president remarked following the Berlin discussions.

The US negotiation team, headed by Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, has suggested a middle-ground proposal. This framework would see Ukrainian forces withdraw, but Russia would not advance, with the demilitarised area established as “a free economic zone.” Moscow has indicated it could use police and national guard units rather than the army in such an area, implying it would still expect to maintain authority there.

“Let me reiterate: a ‘free economic zone’ does not mean controlled by Russia. Neither de jure nor de facto will we recognise Donbas – its currently occupied areas – as Russian. Categorically,” said Zelenskyy.

Path Forward and Possible Scenarios

The way ahead is uncertain how the two sides will proceed on the land question. The Ukrainian leader has previously suggested that a negotiated arrangement such as a special economic area could be theoretically possible if the Ukrainian people voted for it in a national vote. The critical stumbling block is likely to be when the plans are put to Russian president Vladimir Putin, who has given no sign he is willing to compromise on his war aims.

“If Putin rejects everything, we will face exactly what we are encountering on our flight right now – instability,” commented the president, making the statement after his plane took off from Berlin.

“I am confident the United States will increase sanction pressure and supply more weapons if he rejects everything. I think, that would be a reasonable expectation from Ukraine to the Americans,” he added.