Ten years after the UK stumbled into a rushed referendum that polarised the nation and unleashed turmoil, a warning emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering convulsions for which no one is ready.
That is the message from two leading commentators from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a possibly tense and transformative public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can build support very quickly," the commentator stated. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our islands remains highly fragile."
New Title Aims to Stir Debate
The pair have analysed the governmental, economic and cultural reasons for any constitutional change in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the topic with a roadshow of public talks that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles all parties, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a binary, unclear proposal whose consequences have remained undefined because then you land with an extraordinarily polarised community where people who have lost are resistant to defeat and the people who have won don't know exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say this point is approaching, and a group named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists minimise the possibility, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there will be a national vote.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements for and against unification has masked the absence of serious debate, noted McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the concept but the concrete planning which could extend past that to achieve it is mostly absent. A lot has occurred in academia but scarcely any elected officials or campaigners are willing to participate with even the essentials. As an example, what sort of state would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the book, none of the commentators advocates unity or the status quo. Each authors two essays that seek impartiality in presenting the rationale for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, gathering financial and social figures, past examples and constitutional models.
Debates cover identity markers, levies, healthcare systems, retirement funds, public liabilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The aim is to educate and encourage conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there hasn't quite been a discussion," commented the writer. "Discussion suggests an acknowledgement of the notion that there might be valid points on each side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters claim they prefer unity but reject paying higher taxes or implementing a new flag to reflect unionists' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland should establish what the plan from Irish nationalism is other than just stating: 'We want a unified Ireland and we love you'," said the commentator.
Possibility of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a national vote in his generation is possible and that it could happen unexpectedly. "There might be just a mad or a bad or a negligent secretary of state who says: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have reasonable, legitimate perspectives, he commented. "Somebody will succeed in this matter and the other side will eventually be defeated but each side has got important lessons to gain from the alternative viewpoints."
Appeal for Broader Debate
Westminster must engage with the debate, said the analyst. "This concerns Britain. It's a UK matter equally as it is an Irish matter."
