Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency sparked by the introduction of a new 28-article proposal for achieving ceasefire appeared – temporarily – to have been contained. A senior US official spoke of "substantial progress" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its response: a renewed assault of rocket attacks on Kyiv.
The Rhythm of Peace Talks and Military Action
The chain of opposing developments captured the bleak nature of the current period. By day, negotiation efforts are fought: positive announcements are issued from multiple capitals. Considerable effort is expended on containing particular approaches. By night, the Kremlin brutally reminds the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the main instrument for achieving "settlement".
After-Dark Attacks
As military strikes developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's defenselessness was exposed. Ukraine is capable of detecting rocket firings from enemy soil, a capacity afforded by timely intelligence. From witness perspectives, military aircraft that had been deployed to intercept incoming guided weapons roared overhead – advanced fighter aircraft supplied to Ukraine by Western partners.
Soon thereafter, Kyiv's air-defence systems thundered: defensive missiles targeted at a hostile projectile. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, presumably provided by Western nations. Every firing shakes the surroundings, shaking the windows. The moment of terror quickly transforms into sober acceptance: perhaps the incoming missile won't strike its target this time, protecting urban areas from catastrophe and another blackout.
Continuous Dangers
Soon after, a heavy machine gun opened up on a unmanned aircraft somewhere nearby, part of a rapid response unit – probably Western-made equipment. Unfortunately, the bullets missed the enemy aircraft – it continued its flight toward its destination.
Intermittently, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv faced the early updates: seven people killed, destruction and utility failures in many homes as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As customarily, everyone still went about their day – experiencing conflict. But those full day encapsulated Ukraine's essential dependence on Western support – a need that regional partners are demonstrably unable to substitute in the short term.
Failed Diplomacy
The comprehensive proposal from Washington provoked deep reactions, controversy and serious worry – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after previous diplomatic encounters and international summits.
Every new proposal from Washington follows the identical sequence: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, succeeds in resisting. They stabilise the situation but never actually achieve victory. This trend will, no doubt, endure.
Strategic Calculations
It is easy to blame particular leaders of persistently promoting Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. Washington functions according to a assumption familiar among international relations experts: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have lost on the battlefield. The US administration assumes that it is impossible to compel Moscow to abandon the territory that it already controls in Ukraine's occupied territories.
The issue is that while accepting these circumstances, American administration does little to discourage Russia, through words or deeds, from assuming that the current condition will not evolve additionally in its benefit in the near future.
Opposing Positions
Therefore, the Kremlin is confident that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its partners are coming close to fatigue. Their reason to sign a deal that does not give them the maximum possible gain is close to zero. There may be numerous efforts to stop fighting, but they will carry on as long as Russia's leadership remains highly assured in the conclusion.
On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still endure, progressively conceding lives and land but preventing a total frontline collapse until circumstances change in its favour.
Existing Situation
Realistically, there are no actual prerequisites for a armistice. Now, personal considerations are becoming relevant: leadership ambitions to negotiate peace and achieve global acclaim, and the government's twin challenges – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the country's interests against any proposal Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their focus does not shift toward domestic problems. And although their objective will now be considerably more difficult after recent developments, it remains quite doubtful that this will alter their fundamental strategy.
These conflicting dynamics are influencing discussions.
Conclusion and Outlook
It took a just a single week to eliminate the 28 points of the latest plan. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by Washington, opposition by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with soothing efforts of diplomats, and finally, recent disclosures, all served their function.
While new plans based on established approaches are imminent, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter negotiation assaults from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and demonstrate certain reluctance to change the course of events, if they remain united and enhance their military capacity at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to repel nightly air assaults will, for the foreseeable future, largely rely on ongoing international assistance.
